New Seat Details - Warminster and Shaftesbury

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Warminster and Shaftesbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	35,249	62.8%
LAB	12,627	22.5%
LIB	6,342	11.3%
Green	1,565	2.8%
OTH	349	0.6%
UKIP	3	0.0%
CON Majority	22,622	40.3%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Warminster and Shaftesbury: Map

List of old seats forming part of Warminster and Shaftesbury

Old seat: Dorset North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dorset North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dorset North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Dorset	Alderholt	2,444	Dorset Mid	1,280	311	189	0	67	0	0	0	1,847
East Dorset	Crane	2,512	Dorset Mid	1,463	254	165	0	29	0	0	0	1,911
East Dorset	Handley Vale	2,278	Dorset Mid	1,268	224	141	0	25	0	0	0	1,658
East Dorset	St Leonards	1,259	Christchurch	683	124	83	0	14	0	0	0	904
East Dorset	Stour	1,968	Dorset Mid	1,083	215	145	0	24	0	0	0	1,467
East Dorset	Verwood East	4,646	Christchurch	2,519	470	334	0	54	0	0	0	3,377
East Dorset	Verwood West	5,079	Christchurch	2,636	700	478	0	69	0	0	0	3,883
East Dorset	West Moors and Holt	1,033	Christchurch	536	130	83	0	23	0	0	0	772
North Dorset	Abbey	2,913	Dorset Mid	1,617	356	202	0	76	0	0	0	2,251
North Dorset	Blackmore	2,777	Dorset West	1,400	401	210	0	73	0	0	0	2,084
North Dorset	Blandford Central	2,999	Dorset Mid	1,145	579	583	0	101	0	0	0	2,408
North Dorset	Blandford Hilltop	1,537	Dorset Mid	699	364	137	0	44	0	0	0	1,244
North Dorset	Blandford Langton St Leonards	1,513	Dorset Mid	536	273	300	0	19	0	0	0	1,128
North Dorset	Blandford Old Town	1,318	Dorset Mid	608	231	301	0	25	0	0	0	1,165
North Dorset	Bulbarrow	1,533	Warminster and Shaftesbury	779	196	115	0	41	0	0	0	1,131
North Dorset	Gillingham Rural	3,146	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,521	387	454	0	43	0	0	0	2,405
North Dorset	Gillingham Town	4,255	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,734	947	804	0	124	0	0	0	3,609
North Dorset	Hill Forts	4,891	Warminster and Shaftesbury	2,653	688	382	0	138	0	0	0	3,861
North Dorset	Lower Tarrants	1,484	Dorset Mid	1,375	294	168	0	65	0	0	0	1,902
North Dorset	Lydden Vale	1,464	Dorset West	789	190	96	0	37	0	0	0	1,112
North Dorset	Motcombe and Bourton	3,131	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,825	458	258	0	88	0	0	0	2,629
North Dorset	Riversdale and Portman	2,757	Dorset Mid	1,551	515	252	0	96	0	0	0	2,414
North Dorset	Shaftesbury East	2,867	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,202	511	243	0	38	0	0	0	1,994
North Dorset	Shaftesbury West	2,881	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,095	479	609	0	93	0	0	0	2,276
North Dorset	Sturminster Newton	2,987	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,462	488	452	0	87	0	0	0	2,489
North Dorset	The Beacon	1,528	Warminster and Shaftesbury	988	176	126	0	22	0	0	0	1,312
North Dorset	The Stours and Marnhull	3,350	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,722	431	245	0	92	0	0	0	2,490
	Total	70,550		36,169	10,392	7,555	0	1,607	0	0	0	55,723

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dorset North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Salisbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Salisbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Salisbury				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Wiltshire	Alderbury and Whiteparish	3,314	Salisbury	1,778	422	169	28	34	0	0	43	2,474
Wiltshire	Amesbury East	4,199	Salisbury	2,263	828	254	128	42	0	0	15	3,530
Wiltshire	Amesbury West	3,580	Salisbury	1,680	631	200	112	38	0	0	65	2,726
Wiltshire	Bourne and Woodford Valley	3,354	Salisbury	1,715	556	153	28	31	0	0	12	2,495
Wiltshire	Bulford, Allington and Figheldean	699	Salisbury	447	95	39	8	6	0	0	12	607
Wiltshire	Downton and Ebble Valley	3,679	Salisbury	2,056	467	192	85	41	0	0	28	2,869
Wiltshire	Fovant and Chalke Valley	1,885	Salisbury	1,124	193	76	15	17	0	0	11	1,436
Wiltshire	Laverstock, Ford and Old Sarum	3,685	Salisbury	1,143	989	180	36	33	0	0	10	2,391
Wiltshire	Nadder and East Knoyle	123	Warminster and Shaftesbury	66	15	5	3	1	0	0	1	91
Wiltshire	Redlynch and Landford	3,707	Salisbury	1,980	468	163	78	34	0	0	24	2,747
Wiltshire	Salisbury Bemerton	4,230	Salisbury	1,463	1,765	288	111	58	0	0	15	3,700
Wiltshire	Salisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village	3,296	Salisbury	1,198	858	457	39	43	0	0	11	2,606
Wiltshire	Salisbury Harnham	3,911	Salisbury	1,517	625	640	101	50	0	0	13	2,946
Wiltshire	Salisbury St Edmund and Milford	3,425	Salisbury	1,433	725	609	93	150	0	0	13	3,023
Wiltshire	Salisbury St Francis and Stratford	3,987	Salisbury	1,803	698	360	43	128	0	0	12	3,044
Wiltshire	Salisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown	3,522	Salisbury	1,546	749	336	36	37	0	0	11	2,715
Wiltshire	Salisbury St Martin's and Cathedral	3,930	Salisbury	1,576	1,245	318	104	153	0	0	14	3,410
Wiltshire	Salisbury St Paul's	3,464	Salisbury	1,337	981	303	44	154	0	0	57	2,876
Wiltshire	Till and Wylye Valley	3,487	Salisbury	1,590	442	494	34	33	0	0	23	2,616
Wiltshire	Wilton and Lower Wylye Valley	3,565	Salisbury	1,536	564	611	39	41	0	0	12	2,803
Wiltshire	Winterslow	3,101	Salisbury	1,698	303	136	25	28	0	0	13	2,203
	Total	68,143		30,949	13,619	5,983	1,190	1,152	0	0	415	53,308

The full details of these calculations are given on the Salisbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wiltshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wiltshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wiltshire South West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Wiltshire	Ethandune	3,540	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,546	602	302	0	67	0	0	13	2,530
Wiltshire	Fovant and Chalke Valley	1,398	Salisbury	804	168	44	0	20	0	0	6	1,042
Wiltshire	Mere	3,319	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,530	612	138	0	66	0	0	59	2,405
Wiltshire	Nadder and East Knoyle	3,198	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,675	461	104	0	49	0	0	23	2,312
Wiltshire	Southwick	3,376	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,605	627	160	0	64	0	0	43	2,499
Wiltshire	Summerham and Seend	1,480	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	760	188	50	0	21	0	0	6	1,025
Wiltshire	Tisbury	3,370	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,733	513	135	0	59	0	0	11	2,451
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Adcroft	3,128	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,166	816	464	0	77	0	0	15	2,538
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Central	3,254	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,383	1,080	557	0	97	0	0	17	3,134
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Drynham	2,967	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,305	619	279	0	63	0	0	11	2,277
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Grove	3,188	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,384	769	179	0	71	0	0	51	2,454
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Lambrok	3,504	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,530	885	193	0	78	0	0	46	2,732
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Park	3,294	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,328	865	330	0	84	0	0	37	2,644
Wiltshire	Trowbridge Paxcroft	3,715	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	1,254	601	421	0	65	0	0	12	2,353
Wiltshire	Warminster Broadway	3,465	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,705	622	170	0	63	0	0	17	2,577
Wiltshire	Warminster Copheap and Wylye	3,404	Warminster and Shaftesbury	2,147	527	137	0	53	0	0	12	2,876
Wiltshire	Warminster East	4,016	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,797	846	213	0	84	0	0	50	2,990
Wiltshire	Warminster West	3,917	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,991	672	185	0	66	0	0	15	2,929
Wiltshire	Warminster Without	3,327	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,774	398	102	0	48	0	0	10	2,332
Wiltshire	Westbury East	3,576	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,377	787	486	0	85	0	0	53	2,788
Wiltshire	Westbury North	3,228	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,232	761	438	0	76	0	0	37	2,544
Wiltshire	Westbury West	3,627	Warminster and Shaftesbury	1,695	1,050	239	0	82	0	0	48	3,114
Wiltshire	Winsley and Westwood	292	Trowbridge and West Wiltshire	120	46	33	0	6	0	0	1	206
	Total	71,583		32,841	14,515	5,359	0	1,444	0	0	593	54,752

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wiltshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Warminster and Shaftesbury

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Warminster and Shaftesbury
North Dorset	Bulbarrow	1,551	Dorset North	779	196	115	0	41	0	0	0	1,131
North Dorset	Gillingham Rural	3,298	Dorset North	1,521	387	454	0	43	0	0	0	2,405
North Dorset	Gillingham Town	4,948	Dorset North	1,734	947	804	0	124	0	0	0	3,609
North Dorset	Hill Forts	5,294	Dorset North	2,653	688	382	0	138	0	0	0	3,861
North Dorset	Motcombe and Bourton	3,604	Dorset North	1,825	458	258	0	88	0	0	0	2,629
North Dorset	Shaftesbury East	2,733	Dorset North	1,202	511	243	0	38	0	0	0	1,994
North Dorset	Shaftesbury West	3,120	Dorset North	1,095	479	609	0	93	0	0	0	2,276
North Dorset	Sturminster Newton	3,411	Dorset North	1,462	488	452	0	87	0	0	0	2,489
North Dorset	The Beacon	1,799	Dorset North	988	176	126	0	22	0	0	0	1,312
North Dorset	The Stours and Marnhull	3,413	Dorset North	1,722	431	245	0	92	0	0	0	2,490
Wiltshire	Ethandune	3,553	Wiltshire South West	1,546	602	302	0	67	0	0	13	2,530
Wiltshire	Mere	3,376	Wiltshire South West	1,530	612	138	0	66	0	0	59	2,405
Wiltshire	Nadder and East Knoyle	125	Salisbury	66	15	5	3	1	0	0	1	91
Wiltshire	Nadder and East Knoyle	3,246	Wiltshire South West	1,675	461	104	0	49	0	0	23	2,312
Wiltshire	Tisbury	3,441	Wiltshire South West	1,733	513	135	0	59	0	0	11	2,451
Wiltshire	Warminster Broadway	3,620	Wiltshire South West	1,705	622	170	0	63	0	0	17	2,577
Wiltshire	Warminster Copheap and Wylye	4,040	Wiltshire South West	2,147	527	137	0	53	0	0	12	2,876
Wiltshire	Warminster East	4,198	Wiltshire South West	1,797	846	213	0	84	0	0	50	2,990
Wiltshire	Warminster West	4,113	Wiltshire South West	1,991	672	185	0	66	0	0	15	2,929
Wiltshire	Warminster Without	3,275	Wiltshire South West	1,774	398	102	0	48	0	0	10	2,332
Wiltshire	Westbury East	3,914	Wiltshire South West	1,377	787	486	0	85	0	0	53	2,788
Wiltshire	Westbury North	3,574	Wiltshire South West	1,232	761	438	0	76	0	0	37	2,544
Wiltshire	Westbury West	4,375	Wiltshire South West	1,695	1,050	239	0	82	0	0	48	3,114
	Total	78,021		35,249	12,627	6,342	3	1,565	0	0	349	56,135

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Warminster and Shaftesbury. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Andrew Murrison (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	78,021
Turnout:	71.9%

Warminster and Shaftesbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Warminster and Shaftesbury: Overview

Introduction